Roger Mario López Justiniano

Roger Mario López Justiniano

Consultant in economics, banking, and financial regulation

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)

About me

Economist specialized in financial regulation, risk management, and macro-financial analysis. Currently working at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC Spain), where he focuses on regulatory audits, the design of risk management frameworks, and the analysis of financial systems.

He has experience developing credit risk models, stress testing, and financial products, both in traditional banking and the fintech sector.

In parallel, he teaches courses in economics, econometrics, and data science in postgraduate programs in Bolivia. His research interests focus on monetary economics and banking regulation.

Interests

Macroeconomics
Banking
Financial Regulation
Econometrics
Data Science

Education

Master's in Banking and Financial Regulation
University of Navarra
Master's in Economics and Finance
University of Navarra
Bachelor's in Economics
Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno (UAGRM)

Analysis & Opinions

Can the BCB Control Inflation?

Monetary Policy

Can the BCB Control Inflation?

Since late 2023, Bolivia has been experiencing an accelerated and widespread inflationary process, with year-on-year inflation reaching 18.46% in May 2025 and sharp increases in both tradable goods —affected by the dual exchange rate— and non-tradables, as well as core inflation. The persistent fiscal deficit, financed by the Central Bank through monetary issuance, has weakened the exchange rate regime, eroded institutional credibility, and limited the BCB's ability to control inflation. Without credible fiscal consolidation and the restoration of the Central Bank's autonomy, inflationary pressures will continue to intensify.

Jun 10, 2025

Bolivia: A History of Fiscal Incontinence

Bolivia: A History of Fiscal Incontinence

In recent years, Bolivia has experienced a persistent inability to maintain fiscal balance, exacerbated by its dependence on extraordinary revenues from natural resources. Moreover, in recent months, inflation has accelerated, surpassing double digits. This post analyzes, from a historical perspective, how recurring fiscal deficits and their financing through the Central Bank have contributed to inflationary cycles. Based on this diagnosis, two concrete proposals are presented—a fiscal rule and the reform of Article 22 of the BCB Law—as complementary measures to strengthen macroeconomic sustainability.

May 20, 2025

Banking in Bolivia as of March 2025: Betting on the Short Term

Banking in Bolivia as of March 2025: Betting on the Short Term

As of March 2025, Bolivia's banking system shows clear signs of a short-term-oriented strategy in response to a challenging macroeconomic environment. Balance sheet expansion has focused on temporary investments, particularly in instruments issued by the Central Bank (BCB), reflecting increased liquidity channeled to that institution. Meanwhile, credit portfolio growth has slowed (5.4% annually), and banks face challenges in attracting time deposits, relying increasingly on current and savings accounts, which are more volatile and sensitive to confidence shocks. Delinquency remains high and is concentrated in rescheduled loans, still representing around 15% of the total. While system profitability has improved, it has done so by leveraging low-risk, highly liquid placements, suggesting reduced financial intermediation to the real economy. Overall, the system is protecting itself, prioritizing liquidity, but sacrificing credit depth in a context of structural fragility and growing dependence on the BCB.

May 2, 2025

How Reliable Are the Rossi-Hansberg and Zhang (2025) Data for Bolivia?

How Reliable Are the Rossi-Hansberg and Zhang (2025) Data for Bolivia?

In this post, I evaluate the quality of the new granular GDP estimates by Rossi-Hansberg & Zhang (2025), comparing them with official data from the Bolivian National Statistics Institute (INE). At the national level, the differences are below 1%, and although there are larger gaps at the departmental level—particularly in cases like Cochabamba or Santa Cruz—the estimates have improved over time. The results are promising for subnational research in Bolivia.

Apr 7, 2025

Recent Talks

Macroeconomics, U.S. Dollars and Stablecoins in Bolivia

Macroeconomics, U.S. Dollars and Stablecoins in Bolivia

We spoke with Roger Mario López about the concerning state of Bolivia’s macroeconomy, the shortage of U.S. dollars, and the growing role of stablecoins in our country.

Mar 11, 2025

Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Bolivia

Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Bolivia

Conversation with Pepe Camacho for El Deber Radio about the fiscal deficit, inflation, and other economic issues in Bolivia.

Nov 25, 2024

Similarities between the 1980s crisis and the current situation in Bolivia

Similarities between the 1980s crisis and the current situation in Bolivia

Conversation with Carla Paz and Pepe Camacho from El Deber Radio about the hyperinflation of the 1980s and how it was triggered by factors similar to those experienced today: the fall in commodity prices, sustained fiscal deficits, and a context of deep institutional crisis.

Jun 25, 2024

Comment on ‘Volatility in Bank Deposits in Bolivia: Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH’

Comment on ‘Volatility in Bank Deposits in Bolivia: Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH’

Comment on the paper _Volatility in Bank Deposits in Bolivia: Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH_ by MSc. Luis Fernando Escóbar Caba and PhD. Roger Alejandro Banegas, published in LAJED Journal No. 41, edited by the Department of Economics and the Institute of Socio-Economic Research (IISEC) of the Bolivian Catholic University 'San Pablo'.

May 28, 2024

Papers & Publications

El estado del sistema financiero boliviano: Un repaso a la historia reciente

El estado del sistema financiero boliviano: Un repaso a la historia reciente

Documento elaborado para la edición N° 13 de la revista _Ideas & Debate_ de la Fundación Democracia y Prosperidad.

Feb 1, 2024

Desarrollo Financiero y Crecimiento Económico en Bolivia

Desarrollo Financiero y Crecimiento Económico en Bolivia

Artículo sobre el desarrollo financiero elaborado en la materia en la materia de Econometría I a nivel de pregrado.

Sep 1, 2016